July 2022 - Mid-Year Market Update

Data from June 26, 2022:

Our average price of single family homes in St. John's (Metro) has officially surpassed our previous 10-year high of ~$335k in 2014. Currently hovering at ~$336k YTD for 2022.

We are only at the mid-point of the year, so it will be interesting to see where we land in December.

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to May 2022
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub-Type is 'Single-Family'
District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail'
Results calculated from 21,665 listings

Our number of sales is slightly behind where we were for last year (~1080) , currently at 871.

However, at the time of writing, there is still a full week of June closings left to be input in the system, and with June 30 being the "busiest closing day of the year", it's worth reflecting back in another week's time to see where we've landed. I expect we'll be more-or-less even.

When you see HOW many more sales there were in 2021 compared to previous years, data proves we are having a similarly busy - and higher than normal - year so far.

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to May 2022
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub-Type is 'Single-Family'
District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail'
Results calculated from 22,118 listings

Our average list-to-sell ratio (what price a property lists for vs. what it sells for) is also the highest it's been in the last 10 years.

Interestingly (for me at least lol), on the second image below, you'll see June's list-to-sell ratio is 100% of asking price. Yes. 

The average this last month was *asking price* - which is exceptional for St. John's metro. Our average list-to-sell is usually around 95-96% of asking price.

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to May 2022
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub-Type is 'Single-Family'
District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail'
Results calculated from 22,118 listings

Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Jun 2022
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub-Type is 'Single-Family'
District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail'
Results calculated from 1,089 listings

Our average days to sell is still low, around 52 days (less than 2 months from listing to closing), meaning that homes are receiving offers within the first few days/couple of weeks of listing.

It takes around 30-45 days to close a home; therefore, 52-45 = 7 days on average to receive an offer. Most buyers negotiate 30-60-day closings.

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to May 2022
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub-Type is 'Single-Family'
District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail'
Results calculated from 22,118 listings

Our number of new listings is behind pace for this time of year. Even compared to 2021 which was a fewer-listings-than-normal year as well.

This stat confirms the feelings we've been hearing from the market of "I feel like there's not many homes listing."

By this time last year there was about 500 more so far to date.

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to May 2022
Property Type is 'Residential'
Property Sub-Type is 'Single-Family'
District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise - Topsail'
Results calculated from 47,777 listings

Our months of inventory (how long it would take to sell everything on market if no new homes listed) is hovering around balanced market conditions vs. sellers' market conditions, but ignore June. We don't have all of our closed sales data yet. June 2022 will drop once we have full month sales.

Sellers' Market = Less than 5 months.

Balanced Market = 5-7 months

Buyers' Market = 8 months

Note: Comparing to 2021, we have fewer months of inventory on average YTD.

In many pockets of metro - such as family homes in the east end of St. John's - we are experiencing sellers' market conditions.

• Time frame is from Jan 2022 to Jun 2022
  Property Type is 'Residential'
  Property Sub Type is 'Single Family'
  District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise -Topsail'
  Results calculated from approximately 2,800 listings

  
  

  Time frame is from Jan 2021 to Dec 2021
  Property Type is 'Residential'
  Property Sub Type is 'Single Family'
  District is one of 'Conception Bay South', 'East Extern', 'Mount Pearl', 'St. John's', 'St. Thomas - Paradise -Topsail'
  Results calculated from approximately 5,000 listings

  
  

My Interpretation:

• It is the BEST time in the last 10 years to list your home
• If you prep, present, and list your home at the right price, you are still very likely to sell at or above asking price.
  
• Rising interest rates haven't caused any kind of major slow down in demand here yet (like we're seeing in most other parts of the country now). I will say that my colleagues and I are noticing FEWER offers in multiple-offer scenarios, but there is still significant demand and interest for great new listings.
  
• If you're thinking of listing, sooner is better. Rates will begin to impact buyer affordability which will shrink your pool of eligible buyers.  (This doesn't mean no buyers, but fewer). 
  
• As a buyer, get pre-approved now and lock in your rate for 3-4 months. Rates are still comparably low. They're just not the "sale" rates we saw during COVID. Rather than wallow that you didn't get a 2.3% rate last year, take the advice of the Chinese proverb; "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now."
  
• As a buyer, you still MUST see listings within the first 24-48 hours or the good ones are gone.
  
• Also, as a buyer, make sure you're working with a great realtor that's giving you solid advice on the homes you are offering on. That advice includes:
  
• How to write a winning offer
• How to analyze home prices to ensure they're not overpriced
• When to go over, and when to step back.

• 
  

  The team and I are here to help. Reach out with your questions. No obligation. Any time.

  And feel free to forward this to someone you think would find this useful. This is why we write this! To educate you and your loved ones so you get the BEST DEAL on your sale and purchase.

  
  

  SOURCE:
  NLAR, Matrix, June 26, 2022. Opinions expressed are solely that of Nicole Darbaz, REALTOR
  Reference:
  St. John's Metro includes: St. John's, Mount Pearl, CBS, Paradise, East Extern (Torbay, Portugal Cove - St. Phillips, Logy Bay - Middle Cove - Outer Cove, Flatrock, Pouch Cove, Bauline, Bell Island)

  
  

  Nicole Darbaz, REALTOR®
  Your Trusted, St. John’s Metro, Real Estate Expert
  Darbaz Real Estate Group

  Keller Williams Platinum Realty
  709-691-1373
  NicoleDarbaz@kw.com

  MLS®